Friday, July 19, 2024

New Christmas spending forecasts grow to $66 billion

The Australian Retailers Association (ARA) has bumped up its pre-Christmas spending forecasts by another two billion, now predicting a record $66 billion will be spent in the November to December Christmas trading period.

The ARA holiday sales predictions with Roy Morgan forecast a record-breaking spend in the lead up to Christmas which is up 6.4% on last year’s spend.

ARA CEO Paul Zahra says higher numbers are driven largely by price increases as well as stronger food and hospitality spending, as Aussies enjoy their post-pandemic experiences.

“These are great results, however, it’s important to acknowledge that price increases are a factor in these numbers and are also driving Australians to spend to get in ahead of inflation.

“Aussies truly plan to eat, drink and be merry this Christmas. It’s no surprise we are seeing a shift towards food and entertaining with the holiday period over the past two years spent in the shadow of lockdowns,” said Mr Zahra. “The news couldn’t come at a better time for the hospitality sector who have endured more pain than most businesses through the pandemic.”

Out of the states and territories, NSW, Victoria and Queensland have driven most of the projected spike in spending. NSW is set to record a 20.8 billion spend (up 7.7%), followed by Victoria with 17.1 billion (up 5.2%), with Queensland spending predicted to top 13.5 billion (up 6.8%).

ARA/Roy Morgan Pre-Christmas Sales (Retail Categories)

Category 2021 Pre-Christmas Sales

($m – seasonally adjusted)

2022 Pre-Christmas Sales forecasts

($m – seasonally adjusted)

Growth % vs 2021

(Seasonally adjusted)

Food $24,346 $23,401 4.3%
Household Goods $11,584 $11,657 0.6%
Clothing $5,294 $5,500 3.9%
Department Stores $3,249 $3,407 4.9%
Other Retailing $9,785 $10,094 3.2%
Hospitality $7,788 $9,978 28.1%
TOTAL $62,047 $66,037 6.4%
Food $24,346 $25,401 4.3%
Non-Food $37,701 $40,636 7.8%


 ARA/Roy Morgan Pre-Christmas Sales (States and Territories)

 State/Territory 2021 Pre-Christmas Sales

($m – seasonally adjusted)

2022 Pre-Christmas Sales forecasts

($m – seasonally adjusted)

Growth % vs 2021

(seasonally adjusted)

NSW $19,375 $20,864 7.7%
Victoria $16,329 $17,179 5.2%
Queensland $12,682 $13,540 6.8%
South Australia $3,846 $4,100 6.6%
Western Australia $6,839 $7,200 5.6%
Tasmania $1,253 $1,324 5.6%
Northern Territory $570 $586 2.9%
ACT $1,153 $1,222 5.9%
TOTAL $62,047 $66,038 6.4%

“The rising cost of doing business along with supply chain disruptions and staff shortages remain top of mind for retailers. The ARA continues to engage with governments around short and long-term solutions to aid the retail industry’s permanent state of disruption.

“Sensory indulgence is a key theme for spending 2022, withalcohol and food topping the list of intended Christmas gift purchases for this year, followed by gift cards and toys. Men were the most likely to purchase alcohol or food, whilst women were more interested in small inexpensive gifts or novelties, clothing, shoes and sleepwear or books and music,” according to ARA.

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