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MARKETING BACK TO BUSINESS BUT NOT AS USUAL Past experiences, accumulated expertise, patterns, habits and trend lines count for little in the current pandemic- infested marketplace. The present and future are not, and will not be, lineal progressions of the past. To accurately forecast and profit from the future, invent your own. This sage advice is evident in the following text. EBy Marketing Focus Marketing and Business Strategist Barry Urquhart. xpectations are high for the Recovery from hibernation, to some, post-COVID-19 lockdown will need to be rapid. Conversions will, period, but many of ideally, be truncated. these will not be realised. Overall, the context will be Disappointment will be common. fundamentally ‘new’ with different Enduring lockdown and self-isolation is difficult. Reflecting on trauma and shock of the recent past is largely futile. A focus on post-coronavirus deprivations and consequences is a natural, if not expectant, orientation. Evidence is unfolding in the early phases of the fractured business cycle that the ‘snapback’ in demand, purchases and expenditure is slower, narrower and less than experienced in the period before the declaration of COVID-19 pandemic. The median percentages centre on and around 80 per cent in most metrics. Given that a 10 per cent decline on key measures typically cancels most profits and marginalises the viability of a majority of business entities, big and small, a pressing need will exist for the formulation, documentation and implementation for new business models. Those quantum figures are generalisations. Individual circumstances must necessarily be recognised and respected. Headline confidence Consumer confidence, foot traffic and buying patterns are being determined and influenced by newspaper, television, radio and magazine headlines. In both instances, change can be, and often is, daily. Effective planning and the allocation of resources, including staffing, merchandising displays and promotions are difficult. Maximising, or even optimising sales, revenues and costings is, for many, a bridge too far. This is a confronting challenge. The necessary actions will be surgical in nature. General practitioners will be found wanting (skilled surgeons are required). The value of input from external specialists will become evident. Going solo seems to be inappropriate. structures. To optimise the content of their new ‘value package’, management teams will need to determine where and how they ‘fit’ the new marketplace. Retaining and endeavouring to apply past visions, philosophies, practices, strategies and tactics could, and probably will, suboptimise launch and relaunch campaigns. Energy, enthusiasm and urgency will be key components for rapid recovery. In a period of rampant virus, each of these characteristics will be infectious. Capacity Determining, quantifying and configuring new capacity will evolve as fundamental to establishing key performance indicators. Anticipating or identifying which 20 per cent (in whole or part, or possibly 10 per cent or 25 per cent) of the previous demand will not return will be advantageous. That independent variable will be influential in setting the parameters of the ‘new’ business model. Beware ‘locked-in’ strategies Issues centred on family, health, self and wealth are personal and emotional. Rational thoughts and actions are typically sidelined, particularly during periods of health crises. Most responses emanate from the ‘heart’, not the brain. This is apparent from the low incidences of shopping lists and budgets, not withstanding Australia having the second highest national personal debt ratio ($204 debt: $100 income), after Switzerland. Individual retailers cannot materially influence overall marketplace demand. However, they can effect changes in expenditure patterns – to their own profit and marketplace advantages. Improved operational performances should be a byproduct of command performances in ‘retail theatre’. Business essentials Contemplate and conclude: • The specific capacities required to meet, fulfil and satisfy needs and demands in the ‘new’ post-coronavirus marketplace. • Visualise, forecast and nominate the specific previous demand factors that will not return. • The design set-up and a blueprint for refinement of the entity. In summary A new dawn, a new awakening, a fresh start – call it what you like, the post- coronavirus shutdown era will be a unique, different and challenging reality. In scientific research investigations and analyses, references are made to variables. Some are considered independent variables. Typically, they are causal factors for change. Dependent variables are those that are subjected to change, and are consequential to the impacts of external independent variables. In the unprecedented, evolving marketplace, most if not all key variables will be independent. Those who effect change, externally and internally, will be best placed to establish relevance, competitive advantage and influence per se. About Barry Urquhart Barry is a marketing strategist and consumer behaviour analyst with extensive experience in consulting to, and addressing events for retailers, wholesalers and shopping centres on five continents. He is a former lecturer in management at Curtin University. He is author of six books, including the two biggest selling publications on service excellence in Australasia: Serves You Right! and Service Please! M: 0419 835 555 E: Urquhart@marketingfocus.net.au W: marketingfocus.net.au 70 RETAIL WORLD AUG, 2020