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INDUSTRY INSIGHT Source: IRI analysis; COVID-19 Shopper Survey, April 2020; n = 5796. Question: How long do you expect this health crisis to last before health concerns return to normal? Question: How long do you expect the economic impact of coronavirus to last before the economy recovers? Please select your best estimate based on your own opinion as of today. Australians report having made no COVID-19 induced changes to their shopping habits. Behavioural change led to weekly supermarket sales growth soaring above 50 per cent for the week ending March 17. We recorded an additional 30 million grocery transactions through our shopper panellists in the four weeks to March 29 compared with the same period a year before. Shoppers’ frequent experience of stock-outs exacerbated the trend of ‘splintered shopping trips’ that include a combination of retailers within a single outing/mission. While robust growth metrics were apparent for all banners (including double-digit growth in transactions and basket size), Metcash stores recorded a notable four-weekly share gain as shoppers distributed their spend across more retailers. Changes in grocery shop visits On-shelf availability issues have heightened the dilution of store and brand loyalty, with at least half of Australian shoppers surveyed experiencing out of stocks in five fixtures. We found that Australians were more likely than their US counterparts to respond to stock-outs by changing store (30 per cent) or brand preferences (20 per cent). However, there was less proclivity to embrace online as an alternative option as online fulfilment capability in this country became exposed by the soaring demand. Out-of-stock alternatives, most of which reflect more ‘fractured shopping missions’ More recently, a sustained flattening of Australia’s COVID-19 infection curve has coincided with a flattening of FMCG sales growth (to single digits) as ‘fear of running out’ exerts less influence on shopping missions. Increased transactions were a profound influence on March sales gains, but now most shoppers (57 per cent) report an intent to make fewer (larger) trips to limit store visits. Additional waves of the COVID-19 infection will likely prompt further surges in demand (as seen overseas), so supply chains must remain geared to adjust to accelerated demand cycles. Finishing with an uplifting finding from our proprietary research, the FMCG industry, especially retailers, TO PAGE 20 Source: IRI analysis; IRI Shopper Panel Econolink Segmentation Surveys; n for 2019 = 4331, n for 2020 = 5796. Question 1: How would you describe your current financial situation versus a year ago? Question 2: Has your work schedule changed recently because of the coronavirus? (n = 3537). NB: Those respondents already not employed pre COVID-19 not included in results. Question 3: How has the coronavirus response impacted your/your family’s life so far? Source: IRI analysis; COVID-19 Shopper Survey, April 2020; n = 5,796. Question 1: We would like to learn more about how your household’s situation may have been impacted by the coronavirus. If you agree with the statement on the left more, indicate how much by selecting one of the two boxes at the left. If you agree with the statement on the right more, indicate how much by selecting one of the two boxes at the right. Question 2: How has the coronavirus response impacted your/your family’s life so far? Source: IRI analysis; COVID-19 Shopper Survey, April 2020; n = 5,796. Question 1: Is your neighbourhood currently on lockdown or shelter-in-place restriction, where the government has mandated that residents can only leave home for essential needs such as grocery shopping and medical needs? Question 2: How concerned are you about the expected time your neighbourhood will stay on lockdown or shelter-in-place restriction? (n = 3621). Question 3: How has the coronavirus response impacted your/your family’s life so far? JUN, 2020 RETAIL WORLD 19