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INDUSTRY INSIGHTS FROM PAGE 37 reliever supplements than consumers in the US or UK, who have greater percentage shares of the immune system boosters in their top three. Turmeric, given its sales volumes, somewhat surprisingly sees the spoils going to a relatively small number of sellers in Australia and the US. Still more money to be made among fragmented brands VMS brands sold on eBay are an eclectic picture of well-known and lesser known brands, and vary wildly across markets and categories. In Australia, local brands Cenovis and Blackmores are the numbers one and three sellers in vitamin C by average volume per week, and in multivitamins Centrum and Nature’s Way are numbers three and four. Swisse is the number three seller in zinc. But there the ‘mainstream’ brands end. The number two seller in vitamin C is unbranded. Nu u Nutrition holds the number one spot in multivitamins and vitamin D, and Vitabiotics the number two spot in zinc and third spot for vitamin D. Lindens is number one in magnesium. All the rest are minor brands. In the US in the top five categories, the only known ‘supermarket’ brands appearing in the top three volume sellers are Centrum (number one in multivitamins) and Costco’s Kirkland (number three in vitamin C). Emergen-C appears as number one in vitamin C and number two in zinc. All the other top sellers are minor brands. It’s a different story in the UK, where Lindens dominates, holding the number one volume selling slots for vitamins B and C, probiotics, zinc, omega and magnesium. In Australia, most sales are under $30 (50 per cent of vitamin C, 60 per cent for each of multivitamins, vitamin D, turmeric). There’s money to be made in magnesium, which is notably ‘underlisted’ (fewer listings than sales) at both the $20-$30 and $30-$40 price ranges, which together represent 70 per cent of the volume. Similarly underlisted are multivitamins at $20-$30 (the biggest selling price range for the subcategory), and vitamin D at $10-$20. Perhaps because of its relatively higher price points, turmeric is overlisted the more expensive it becomes. To be expected, price points are both lower in the US and most sales come at the lower end. Nearly 70 per cent of vitamin C sales are under US$21, and 70 per cent of multivitamins are under US$24 and underlisted at the US$16-24 price range. Eighty per cent of zinc volume sits at US$6-18 and is underlisted, as is turmeric where 45 per cent of the volume sits at US$10-20. In the UK, the volume somewhat surprisingly sits at the low end of price, with 42 per cent of vitamin C at £6-12, 80 per cent of vitamin D volume under £12 (albeit a further 15 per cent of volume at £12-18 is underlisted), 40 per cent of turmeric at £7-14, and 43 per cent of vitamin B sub-£9. What of the future? Will the high level of demand continue as consumers seek to ‘insure’ themselves health-wise? Or will sales slow as consumers make their way through all of their pantry stock? Or will consumer need shift back to other subcategories, such as joints, as the need for immunity boosters and stress relievers gradually recedes? For all three markets, eBay data in March and April showed large spikes in the VMS category, which although dropping back substantially in May remained at a higher sales level than prior to March. LEK expects VMS demand in 2020 to continue to grow despite rising recessionary pressures, based on the previous category behaviour during and post-recession. For example, during the US recession of 2008-09, VMS grew 6.8 per cent in 2008 and 6.1 per cent in 2009. Historically, health and wellness spend, and VMS spend in particular, is prioritised by consumers in times of recession and is one of the last discretionary spend categories to be impacted. For many, VMS consumption may actually increase, as it represents a cost-effective, preventive measure to mitigate the need for more costly physician or hospital visits in times of reduced income. VMS is the beneficiary of a number of underlying category growth drivers, according to Euromonitor: consumers bringing wellbeing in-house, turning to new technologies and trends in the health and wellness industry; the millennials’ desire for experience and self-improvement; rising technology and broadband access, resulting in consumers choosing to cocoon at home; fewer children, allowing for greater discretionary spending; and a dramatic shift in attention to mental wellbeing. Additionally, there is evidence that the pandemic has brought former non-users into the category. It’s therefore reasonable to expect VMS to continue to grow, post- pandemic, in the medium term. About ShelfTrend ShelfTrend is an eBay data provider, with data spanning more than 20 global markets and tens of thousands of product categories. Its market intelligence reports can be used to assess brand, category and product performance, and to identify innovation trends. Know more. Sell more. ShelfTrend. Shelftrend.com 38 RETAIL WORLD AUG, 2020