AFGC CHEP Retail Index indicates potential slowdown

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Year-on-year retail trade growth is expected to soften to 3.6 per cent in the December quarter from 4.2 per cent in the September quarter, according to the AFGC CHEP Retail Index.

On a monthly basis, the index was 4.4 per cent higher in September 2015 compared with September 2014, with retail trade turnover of $24.5 billion. Growth is expected to slow to 3.6 per cent year-on-year in November, with turnover of $24.6 billion.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics trend data indicates that the consistently strong food sector saw year-on-year sales growth weakening to below three per cent in August.

“We are currently seeing weaker food price inflation domestically because of a range of factors, including below average income growth over the past three years and a slowing in population growth,” Australian Food and Grocery Council CEO Gary Dawson said.

“However, at the same time, the lower Australian dollar has seen a 28 per cent surge in Australia’s food and beverage exports in 2014-15, as reported in our annual industry snapshot ‘State of the Industry 2015’, underpinning growth in the food and grocery sector despite challenging economic conditions.”

The AFGC CHEP Retail Index is a collaborative project between the Australian Food and Grocery Council and CHEP Australia, powered by Deloitte. The index uses CHEP transactional data based on pallet movements and is a lead indicator of Australian Bureau of Statistics Retail Trade Data.

The next AFGC CHEP Retail Index will be released in late January, 2016.

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