 Index rose by 1.3% to 156.9 in November, led by a 5.7% jump in spending on household goods.){kind=link}
The CommBank Household Spending Insights (HSI) Index rose by 1.3% to 156.9 in November. This was led by a 5.7% jump in spending on household goods as shoppers took advantage of Black Friday and Cyber Monday sales.
Gains in household goods were led by fashion with a 30% month-on-month increase in spending at men’s and women’s clothing stores.
Eight of the 12 HSI spending categories rose in November, with other notable uplifts in hospitality (up 2.2%) and food and beverage goods (up 1.7%).
“Bargain hunters taking advantage of Black Friday sales drove an increase in spending in November, broadly in line with 2023, and we expect to see a drop off in spending in December as we have seen in previous years,” says Commonwealth Bank of Australia Chief Economist Stephen Halmarick.
“We’re seeing Black Friday and holiday spending shift earlier as retailers entice shoppers with early discounts on discretionary items. Collectively, sales for October and November 2024 were up 2% compared to the same period last year.”
The disparity in spending across home ownership status remains, with spending by renters up just 0.4% for the year to November compared to mortgage holders (up 1.6%) and those who own their home outright (up 2.7%).
The annual HSI growth rate decreased to 2.7% in November, down from 4.2% in October. The biggest annual spending increases in the year to date have been in hospitality (up 7.6%) and essential services such as education (up 5.2%) and health (up 5%).
Mr Halmarick says the strong November results largely reflect seasonal trends, with a pull-forward of spending from December into earlier months.
“Our view remains that a substantial increase in household spending is unlikely to occur until the RBA starts lowering interest rates,” he says. “Our base case is a start to rate cuts in February 2025, but with a clear risk that this is delayed until later [in the] year.”