The global grocery retail market will generate an additional US$2.2 trillion in sales by 2024, growing by 24 per cent, according to the latest forecast from IGD.
The international research organisation forecasts the following.
IGD predicts that Asia will account for nearly 50 per cent of all new sales produced between 2019 and 2024.
“Asia’s importance to the global grocery market will continue to grow, with eight of the top 20 largest markets set to be in the region in five years’ time,” IGD Head of Asia Nick Miles said.
“China, India, Japan and Indonesia will account for the majority of new grocery sales generated in Asia between 2019 and 2024.
“China will overtake the US in 2022 to become the largest grocery market in the world and will account for 43 per cent of new grocery sales in Asia over the next five years. India will also grow in significance, accounting for nearly a fifth (23 per cent) of new sales.
“Traditional trade will continue to grow, while modern trade will benefit from more stores and improvements to existing operations. Growth will vary considerably by market, with convenience and online set to contribute the fastest growth. Online in particular will grow in importance across all markets.”
North America is set to produce 12 per cent of the new sales to 2024.
“As a mature market, growth is slow and steady, and the economic outlook remains mixed,” IGD Canada Programme Director Stewart Samuel said.
“Online grocery and the discounters will be the fastest growing channels over the next five years. For online, we are in a period of rapid expansion, with retailers seeking to build scale in the channel.
“Discount retailers, both hard discounters and dollar store operators, are evolving their models and aiming to grab a greater share of customers’ food spend.”
Overall, Europe is set to account for nearly 16 per cent of new sales to 2024. Western Europe will generate almost two-thirds of these sales.
“Germany, France, Italy, Spain and the UK combined will account for nearly two-thirds of all new sales generated between 2019 and 2024,” IGD EMEA Jon Wright said. “Among the top five, Germany and Spain are set to grow faster than the wider reason.
“Discounters and the online channel are set to be the key drivers of growth to 2024, with both gaining share versus established channels like hypermarkets and supermarkets.
“In discount, the continued expansion of regional retailers like Aldi and Lidl will underpin growth, but in specific countries national champions like REMA 1000, Netto and Eurospin will support this growth too.
“Online will benefit from more investment in improved delivery solutions.”
Latin America has seen a “slowdown” in growth in 2019, says IGD. This is expected to “bounce back” in the short-term.
“The majority of growth in Latin America will be driven by Brazil, which accounts for more than a third of the region’s grocery market,” IGD Retail Analyst Oliver Butterworth said.
“Cash and carry is the fastest growing physical channel in the country, which will cause hypermarkets to continue to lose share.
“Carrefour and GPA, two of Brazil’s top three grocery retailers, are each opening around 20 new cash and carry stores annually and this pace of expansion is likely to continue in the medium-term.”