Cutting tobacco excise will likely to fuel, not fix, illicit trade, according to experts from Flinders Nicotine and Tobacco Research Group at Flinders University.

Professor Marita Hefler and Professor Richard Edwards warn that cutting tobacco tax by 75-80%, as proposed by the Coalition and One Nation, and supported by the tobacco industry, will not solve Australia’s illicit tobacco problem.

Rather it will likely undermine decades of progress in reducing smoking and hand bigger profits to the tobacco companies who create and maintain the smoking epidemic.

“Cutting excise is being sold as a fix for illicit tobacco, but there’s no evidence it would work – and plenty of evidence it would backfire,” says Professor Marita Hefler of the Flinders Nicotine and Tobacco Research Group at Flinders University.

She says the price gap between legal and illicit tobacco would likely remain, as illicit suppliers could respond by further lowering prices, while tobacco companies could increase their margins by not fully passing on the tax cut.

The result would be the illicit market continuing to thrive, tobacco industry profits increasing and all cigarettes (legal and illegal) becoming cheaper. This risks reversing the long decline in smoking prevalence – one of Australia’s greatest public health achievements – and drawing more young Australians into tobacco addiction.

Professor Richard Edwards from the Flinders Nicotine and Tobacco Research Group says people who don’t smoke don’t buy cigarettes, legal or illicit.

“If we want to beat the illicit market, the answer is not to cut tobacco excise and make all tobacco products cheaper. Instead, we need to keep reducing the overall tobacco market with measures that encourage and support people who smoke to quit and protect young people from starting, whilst also cracking down against the illicit tobacco market much harder,” he said.

The researchers also note that introducing policies to cut the number of retailers permitted to sell tobacco and rigorously enforcing licensing requirements would do far more to choke off the illicit market than any tax cut – while also supporting people who smoke to quit and protecting young people by keeping cigarettes out of easy reach.

The Australian Medical Association (AMA) has also condemned proposals to slash tobacco excise, deeming it a “simplistic, misguided and ineffective solution to a complex problem”.

The retail industry has supported calls to cut tobacco excise as part of broader reforms to tackle illicit tobacco and organised crime.